9/18(五)專題演講：Can phase-outs and other decline policies accelerate decarbonisation under the Paris Agreement?
//Keynote Speech
Can phase-outs and other decline policies accelerate decarbonisation under the Paris Agreement?
/Speaker:
Gregory Trencher (prof.)
Kyoto University,
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto Japan
Abstract
There is increasing recognition that ‘decline policies’, such as phase-outs, bans, pollution pricing and substitution programmes, are critical for accelerating decarbonisation under the Paris Agreement. By directly reducing or eliminating emissions-intensive technologies, fuels, materials and practices, decline policies fill a critical void in climate governance, which continues to focus on the creation and diffusion of green technologies. This bias to novelty and build up has resulted in the addition of clean innovations without ‘subtracting’ the incumbent technologies, energies and activities at the root of the climate crisis. In this talk, I present the results of an analysis of more than 1,000 decline policies identified in the climate policy portfolios of Annex I Parties under the Paris Agreement, collaboratively implemented with researchers at Carleton University, the University of StGallen and the University of Bern. Firstly, I compare the decarbonisation potential of decline policies against other climate policies. Here I find that the expected mitigation impact of decline policies is considerably higher than other policy types. Next, I conceptualise and evaluate the policy design features that influence decarbonisation impact. This analysis reveals that a decline policy’s ‘intensity’ – achieved by its obligatory force, decline speed and coverage of targeted systems – is robustly associated with greater mitigation potential. This suggests that policy design, rather than the choice of the decline instrument per se (e.g. an economic vs regulatory measure), can be a powerful mitigation amplifier. Overall, the results of this study underscore the critical role that stringently designed decline policies can play in accelerating decarbonisation under the Paris Agreement.
DATE 日期：2026/9/18 (五)
TIME 時間：1420-1610
VENUE 地點：R208 台大國發所
主辦單位：國立臺灣大學國家發展研究所
合辦單位：國立臺灣大學風險社會與政策研究中心
